关键词: 生育意愿, 生育行为, 代际传递, 人口惯性

Abstract: Based on data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this study finds that parental fertility behavior significantly influences children’s fertility intentions and behaviors through the intergenerational transmission of socioeconomic status. The ethical cognition of “fewer but healthier births” and its corresponding fertility patterns, fostered by the long-standing family planning policy, exhibit intergenerational transmission characteristics. This has resulted in an endogenous negative population growth momentum, contributing to low fertility intentions and behaviors among younger generations. Further analysis reveals that the intergenerational transmission effect is more pronounced among males than females, in rural areas than in urban areas, and among individuals with lower levels of human capital than those with higher levels. Moreover, the intergenerational influence of parents on children’s fertility behavior manifests through the explicit pathway of intergenerational support: grandparental childcare support relaxes time constraints related to childcare, increases children’s labor market participation rates, and raises current income and future income expectations, thereby boosting children’s fertility intentions and behaviors. In contrast, intergenerational financial support fails to mitigate the sharply rising costs of household reproduction associated with urbanization and thus exerts no significant effect on increasing children’s fertility levels.

Key words: fertility intention, fertility behavior, intergenerational transmission, population momentum