广西师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版） ›› 2021, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (2): 41-50.doi: 10.16088/j.issn.1001-6600.2020080201

• CCIR2020 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于经验模态分解和多分支LSTM网络汇率预测

薛涛, 丘森辉*, 陆豪, 秦兴盛   

  1. 广西师范大学 电子工程学院, 广西 桂林 541004
  • 收稿日期:2020-08-02 修回日期:2020-10-02 出版日期:2021-03-25 发布日期:2021-04-15
  • 通讯作者: 丘森辉(1988—),男,广西贵港人,广西师范大学讲师。E-mail:qiusenhui@gxnu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(61976063)

Exchange Rate Prediction Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition and Multi-branch LSTM Network

XUE Tao, QIU Senhui *, LU Hao, QIN Xingsheng   

  1. School of Electronic Engineering, Guangxi Normal University, Guilin Guangxi 541004, China
  • Received:2020-08-02 Revised:2020-10-02 Online:2021-03-25 Published:2021-04-15

摘要： 作为一种新型信号变换算法,经验模态分解(empirical mode decomposition, EMD)能够解决傅里叶变换等方法受限于特定基函数的缺陷。本文针对人工神经网络对高频金融时间序列预测准确率不足的问题,结合EMD和韦布尔分布对金融时间序列进行预处理,提出一种基于经验模态分解和多分支长短期记忆网络的分类预测模型,用于从高频金融时间序列中提取有关价格走势的信息并对未来的价格运动趋势做出预测。通过对2009—2012年欧元兑美元汇率时间序列进行预测,实验结果表明,所提出的网络模型可以得到较高的预测准确率和计算速度,并且同普通LSTM网络相比,提高了泛化能力和模型稳定性。

关键词: LSTM网络, 金融时间序列, 汇率预测, 分类模型, 经验模态分解, 深度学习

Abstract: As a new signal transformation algorithm, Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) can solve the limitation of some existing methods such as Fourier transform that are limited to specific basis functions. Aiming at the problem of insufficient prediction accuracy of artificial neural networks for high-frequency financial time series, this paper combines EMD and Weibull distribution to preprocess financial time series. A classification model based on EMD and multi-branch long short-term memory network is proposed in this paper. The multi-branch LSTM network based on EMD is used to extract information about price movements from high-frequency financial time series and make predictions about future price movements. By predicting the FX time series of EURUSD from 2009 to 2012, the experimental results show that the proposed model can obtain higher prediction accuracy and calculation speed. Compared with ordinary LSTM network, the generalization ability and model stability are improved.

Key words: LSTM network, financial time series, FX predicting, classification model, empirical mode decomposition, deep learning

中图分类号: 

  • TP183
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