Abstract: Against the backdrop of the “dual carbon” goals profoundly reshaping corporate value assessment systems and accelerating the cultivation of green productivity, whether carbon commitment compliance-as a key signal demonstrating the authenticity of corporate low-carbon transition-can effectively reduce the cost of equity capital has become a core issue concerning corporate green transformation and financing efficiency. Taking China’s Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies from 2008 to 2023 as the research sample, this study constructs an index of carbon commitment compliance to measure the alignment between corporate carbon commitments and carbon actions, and empirically examines the impact of carbon commitment compliance on the cost of equity capital. The results show that carbon commitment compliance significantly reduces the cost of equity capital. Analyst earnings forecast dispersion and climate risk play partial mediating roles in this relationship, meaning that carbon commitment fulfillment reduces investors’ risk premium requirements by lowering analyst earnings forecast dispersion and mitigating corporate climate risk. Heterogeneity tests further reveal that the negative impact of carbon commitment compliance on the cost of equity is more pronounced in non-state-owned enterprises, non-heavily polluting industries, and firms with higher institutional investor ownership. To reduce pollution and carbon emissions and accelerate the development of green productivity, enterprises should strive to enhance their Carbon Commitment Compliance capabilities, transforming verbal pledges into tangible emission reduction actions to strengthen market trust and lower financing costs. The government should accelerate the refinement and implementation of carbon-related disclosure requirements. Capital markets should strengthen their ability to identify and price carbon commitment fulfillment, guiding capital allocation toward low-carbon transition enterprises.

Key words: carbon commitment fulfillment, cost of equity capital, analyst earnings forecast dispersion, climate risk