关键词: 人口变动, 学制改革, 弹性学制, 人口红利, 人才红利

Abstract: Against the macro-demographic backdrop of declining birth rates, population aging, regional disparities in population growth and decline, and sustained fluctuations in total population, China’s traditional stable educational system has gradually revealed adaptive shortcomings, failing to address the compatibility challenges arising from both static population scales and dynamic demographic shifts. Accordingly, China’s educational system has to move beyond a singular focus on stability and shift toward a new reform orientation rooted in stability while balancing coherence, flexibility, and elasticity. At present, China has established a complete educational system spanning from preschool to doctoral education, totaling 25 years in length. However, structural limitations persist within this system, manifesting as an endpoint to formal learning: first, fragmented stage management, prominent exam-oriented tendencies, and a lack of unified articulation standards undermine systemic operational momentum; second, discontinuities in articulation during basic education—particularly insufficient preparation for transitions between kindergarten and primary school, primary and junior secondary school, and junior secondary and senior secondary school—result in episodic educational fragmentation; third, insufficient elasticity across higher education tiers, coupled with limited flexibility in major and minor programs at the junior college, undergraduate, master’s, and doctoral levels, fails to meet the personalized and diversified advancement needs of students in the era of mass higher education. Grounded in the ongoing transition from a demographic dividend to a talent dividend, and informed by relevant theories of educational system reform, it is imperative to adopt “learning without boundaries” as a new reform orientation and explore a holistic reform framework adapted to evolving demographic structures.

Key words: demographic shift, educational system reform, flexible educational system, demographic dividend, talent dividend