关键词: 产业链供应链, 中间消费品, 总固定资本形成品, 最终消费品

Abstract: Under the reshaping of the US supply chain, the resilience and security issues of China’s key industrial chain and supply chain have become prominent. By constructing an import diversification index for industry products and matching data from the BEC product classification (upstream, midstream, downstream) with monthly import data of China’s HS6-digit products under HS2017 statistics for 2018 and 2022, this study evaluates the resilience and vulnerability of China’s import supply chain across upstream, midstream, and downstream industries. The findings show that: (1) China does not face the risk of industrial and supply chain disruption in importing upstream primary intermediate consumption goods and upstream generic processed intermediate consumption goods, but exposes import vulnerability in high-tech upstream products such as miscellaneous chemical products. (2) China demonstrates import vulnerability in specific midstream processed intermediate consumption goods such as inorganic and organic compounds, but faces no risk of industrial and supply chain disruptions in importing midstream generic gross fixed capital formation goods; China reveals import vulnerability in portable automatic data processing equipment and aircraft weighing>15 tons for specified midstream gross fixed capital formation goods. (3) China does not run the risk of industrial and supply chain disruptions in importing downstream primary durable and non-durable, processed durable and non-durable final consumption goods, but shows import vulnerability in high-tech downstream products such as vaccines and portable automatic data processing equipment. To strengthen the industrial chain and supply chain and enhance the competitiveness of China’s economy, on one hand, it is necessary to address the independent R&D and production of weak links in the chemical industry to achieve partial import substitution. On the other hand, it is essential to vigorously diversify the import sources of these short-boards to mitigate the risk of import disruption. Meanwhile, efforts should be concentrated on the independent R&D and production of organic compounds, inorganic compounds, portable automatic data processing equipment, and small aircraft, while also expanding the import diversification of these products. Additionally, it is important to increase R&D investment in vaccines and automatic data processing equipment by universities, research institutes, and enterprises, and to foster their independent innovation.

Key words: industrial and supply chains, intermediate consumption goods, gross fixed capital formation goods, final consumption goods