关键词: 人口变化, 教育资源配置, 教育布局, 人口决定论

Abstract: Against the situation of low fertility rates, deepening population aging, and intensified mobility in China’s demographic development, how to scientifically allocate educational resources in response to demographic trends has emerged as a core issue of both theoretical urgency and practical significance. Research on this topic has evolved through distinct phases: initial exploration, steady expansion, rapid growth, and current high-level advancement. Scholars have constructed a systematic analytical framework centered on three demographic dimensions—population size, structure, and mobility—and five facets of educational resources: student capacity, faculty, fiscal support, spatial distribution, and structural typologies. Existing studies predominantly employ three narrative modes: adaptation discourse, guidance discourse, and system discourse, which implicitly embed theoretical biases such as demographic determinism, reductionist methodology,and macro-structural perspectives.Accordingly, future research paradigms necessitate a shift from unidirectional determination to interactive generativity, from isolated analysis to systemic integration, and from macro-dominated approaches to multi-scale, multi-level analytical frameworks. Such a reorientation aims to provide robust theoretical references for educational strategic planning under the new demographic normal.

Key words: demographic change, educational resource allocation, educational layout, demographic determinism